美联储降息概率降至3成，原因何在前景如何？｜国际

Core Insights - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement regarding future interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping to around 30% [1][3] - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Department presents conflicting signals, which diminishes expectations for a December rate cut and increases the likelihood of the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach [1][5] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - Several participants at the October meeting suggested that if economic performance aligns with expectations, a further reduction in the federal funds rate target range in December could be appropriate. However, many others indicated that maintaining the current target range for the remainder of the year would be more suitable [3] - The minutes reveal a weaker inclination towards a December rate cut, as the term "many" implies a larger number than "several," indicating a divided stance among committee members [3] - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October and plans to stop reducing its balance sheet from December, reallocating MBS funds into short-term Treasury securities to optimize liquidity [3] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 52,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above prior expectations [5] - The conflicting employment data has weakened the December rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 50.1% to 32.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 67.2% [5]