全球气候治理的共识，越来越弱了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes and challenges of COP30, highlighting the shift from setting climate goals to implementing them effectively, with a focus on the role of Brazil and the implications of geopolitical dynamics on global climate governance [2][7][12]. Group 1: COP30 Outcomes - COP30 revealed that the global temperature increase has been reduced to a range of 1.9-2.6°C due to the implementation of the "Nationally Determined Contributions" (NDCs) established by the Paris Agreement, contrasting with earlier predictions of over 4°C [2]. - Brazil, as the host country, has set a precedent by announcing its new NDC for 2024, aiming for a 2035 reduction target anchored to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 [5][7]. - The conference emphasized the need for practical cooperation and the acceleration of low-carbon transitions, marking a shift in focus from goal-setting to implementation [7][12]. Group 2: Challenges in Climate Governance - There is a significant lag in the submission of new NDCs by countries, with nearly half yet to submit, indicating a lack of momentum in global climate governance [3][4]. - Geopolitical divisions, economic uncertainties, and funding shortages are major obstacles, with developed countries and developing nations experiencing distrust over climate financing [6][12]. - The Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and subsequent funding cuts have exacerbated these challenges, with an estimated $11 billion in climate funding affected [6][12]. Group 3: Trade and Climate Policy - The inclusion of "unilateral trade measures" as a formal agenda item was proposed by developing countries, reflecting the need for affordable low-carbon products and their smooth circulation globally [10]. - The article highlights the increasing discussions around trade policies in relation to climate action, as countries seek to avoid "green protectionism" while ensuring equitable and efficient global green transitions [10][11]. Group 4: Brazil's Role in Climate Action - Brazil's proactive stance in climate governance is evident through its reactivation of the Amazon Rainforest protection plans, which have led to a significant reduction in deforestation rates [12][13]. - The choice of location for COP30 in the Amazon region underscores the connection between climate change and ecosystem protection, emphasizing the urgency of addressing environmental degradation [11][12]. Group 5: China's Influence in Climate Governance - China has transitioned from a passive participant to a key player in global climate governance, with significant achievements in low-carbon product exports, reaching $121 billion in the first half of 2025 [15][16]. - The country is also shifting from being a follower in technology application to a leader in innovation, contributing to global low-carbon supply chains and supporting developing nations in their climate efforts [16][20].