黑色星期五！怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by concerns over AI bubbles and changing interest rate expectations, particularly following Nvidia's strong earnings report and the latest employment data [2][4][12]. Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq, experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping 4.7%, marking its largest intraday drop since April [4][12]. - In China, the three major stock indices also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% and the ChiNext Index down 4.02% [3]. Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia reported a third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $31.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Despite Nvidia's optimistic outlook, investor concerns about high valuations in tech stocks persisted, leading to market skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI demand [6][18]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, the strongest monthly gain since April, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [9][10]. - The employment report has complicated the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with a 60.4% probability of maintaining rates in December and a 39.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [11]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The article highlights a shift in market sentiment, with a focus on nine negative factors contributing to the recent sell-off, including concerns over Nvidia's "good news already priced in" and tightening liquidity [14][15]. - The average liquidity in the S&P 500 has decreased, indicating that small trades can lead to significant price fluctuations [15]. AI Market Dynamics - The article raises questions about the profitability of AI investments, noting that major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures while facing challenges in cash flow sustainability [19]. - The potential for an AI bubble is discussed, with concerns that the current financing models may lead to vulnerabilities in the market [19][24]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while the immediate market outlook is uncertain, the long-term trend for A-shares remains positive, with expectations of a gradual upward movement around the 4000-point mark [27].