【招银研究|资本市场快评】美股建议等待，A股调整后有望继续上行——11月21日美股和A股大幅波动点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. stock markets, attributing it to three main pressures: the diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising concerns over an AI investment bubble, and historically high valuations in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for U.S. Market Adjustment - The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly decreased, with a higher probability of pausing cuts in December due to hawkish signals from officials and the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [1][2]. - Concerns about an AI investment bubble are growing, driven by a mismatch between exponential growth in capital expenditure and linear growth in revenue from AI applications. Nvidia's strong earnings report did not alleviate market fears, as its revenue is tied to capital spending rather than actual market demand [2]. - U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, with the Shiller P/E ratio exceeding levels seen in 2021 and 1929, only surpassed by the peak of the 2000 internet bubble. This suggests that the market has priced in overly optimistic growth expectations, limiting further valuation expansion [2]. Group 2: Outlook for U.S. Markets - The impact of interest rate expectations is likely to be short-term, with a higher probability of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve in the future. Although December's rate cut is uncertain, rates may drop to around 3% by the end of 2026 [3]. - The core contradiction in the U.S. market lies between high valuations and the uncertain prospects of AI. While AI's potential remains, the timeline for its widespread productivity enhancement is uncertain, leading to justified concerns about an AI bubble [3]. - It is recommended to adjust annual return expectations to align with single-digit profit growth rates and to prepare for potential market corrections of 10%-20%. The current market has already seen a 5% correction, but valuations have not yet returned to reasonable levels, suggesting a continued wait for better entry points [4]. Group 3: Outlook for A-shares and H-shares - A-shares and H-shares experienced a synchronized adjustment due to external market declines and prior pressure releases, influenced by the drop in U.S. markets and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]. - The core factors affecting A-share performance remain its fundamentals and liquidity. A dovish path from the Federal Reserve is expected to continue, with domestic asset allocation likely favoring equity markets in a low-interest environment [5]. - After the current adjustment phase, A-shares and H-shares are anticipated to continue rising in the following year, supported by improved performance in a recovering inflation environment [5]. Group 4: Sector Insights - High-valuation technology stocks are sensitive to liquidity changes and may face adjustment pressures, while dividend stocks and technology sectors exhibit a seesaw effect, with dividend stocks currently showing advantages [6]. - Consumer stocks have been less affected by liquidity expectations due to their adjusted valuations, presenting opportunities for left-side positioning despite limited fundamental improvement [6]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a 20% adjustment, with historical bull market corrections typically ranging from 20%-30%, indicating potential for increased focus once adjustments are complete [6].