日本，开始渡劫

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is currently facing significant challenges, with a consensus among key economic leaders on the urgency of addressing market dynamics [2][3]. Economic Performance - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3, marking a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, the first negative growth since Q1 2024 [6][11]. - The decline in GDP is attributed to weak personal consumption growth of only 0.1%, a 1.2% drop in export growth, and a significant 9.4% decrease in housing investment [8][18]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of economic challenges, the Japanese yen weakened, and bond yields surged, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.76%, the highest since June 2008 [3][4]. - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 2% and falling below 49,000 points on November 21 [5]. Government Response - Prime Minister Kishi's administration announced a substantial economic stimulus plan amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, which includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account spending, representing a 27% increase from the previous government's budget [19][21]. - This stimulus plan has raised concerns about its impact on Japan's fiscal health, leading to further market volatility [19][20]. Trade Relations - Japan's export growth is under pressure, particularly in the automotive sector, due to a new trade agreement with the U.S. that imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese cars [14][16]. - China has become Japan's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 20% of Japan's exports, making the current political tensions particularly concerning for Japan's economic stability [23][34]. Political Climate - The new Prime Minister's assertive political stance has led to increased tensions with China, which could have negative repercussions for Japan's economy, especially in tourism and trade [26][28]. - The potential decline in Chinese tourists, who represent a significant portion of Japan's inbound tourism, could further strain the economy, with estimates suggesting a 25.1% drop could reduce GDP by approximately 0.36% [31][34].