币圈多头”Tom Lee：加密市场调整可能接近尾声，比特币正在成为美股的领先指标

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a significant downturn since October 10, 2023, following a large-scale liquidation event that affected approximately 2 million accounts, leading to a liquidity crisis among market makers [1][9][10]. Group 1: Market Impact and Liquidation Event - On October 10, a major liquidation event was triggered by abnormal fluctuations in stablecoin prices, causing a cascading effect across exchanges and resulting in the automatic liquidation of many accounts [8][9]. - The market has been in a state of reflexive weakness, similar to the large-scale liquidation in 2022, which took eight weeks to fully recover; currently, six weeks have passed since the recent event, suggesting that two more weeks of adjustment may be needed [5][12]. - Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly from a high of $125,000 in early October to around $82,000, reflecting the ongoing market challenges [6]. Group 2: Role of Market Makers - Market makers, which play a crucial role in providing liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, have suffered substantial capital losses due to the October 10 event, forcing them to reduce their balance sheets [10][11]. - The reduction in market maker capital has created a vicious cycle of liquidity depletion, where falling cryptocurrency prices necessitate further balance sheet reductions, exacerbating the market downturn [11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical comparisons indicate that the current market conditions may take time to stabilize, with lessons learned from past crises suggesting that the industry will adapt its mechanisms to prevent similar occurrences in the future [12]. - Tom Lee emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market has the advantage of avoiding excessive regulation compared to traditional financial crises, although it still faces the repercussions of the recent liquidation event [12]. Group 4: Leading Indicator Role of Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and Ethereum have emerged as leading indicators for the stock market, with Bitcoin often showing price movements ahead of traditional equities, highlighting the interconnectedness of these markets [3][13]. - The heightened automation and sensitivity of liquidity mechanisms in the cryptocurrency market allow it to respond to systemic risks more rapidly than traditional markets [14].