牛市还在吗，如何应对市场下跌？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current phase of the A-share market, analyzing it through the lens of the classic bull market three-stage theory, and emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive strategies in investment as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance-driven growth [4][6][25]. Group 1: Bull Market Phases - The bull market is divided into three stages: valuation recovery, performance-driven growth, and emotional-driven bubble [6][7]. - The first stage, characterized by policy shifts and risk appetite recovery, has been completed as of October 2024, with the market returning to historical valuation levels [7][9]. - The second stage, currently in progress, focuses on performance verification, with A-share companies' profits growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and significant growth in sectors like TMT and manufacturing [9][10]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The TMT sector showed strong performance, with electronic profits up 45.3% year-on-year, and AI-related indices seeing profits increase by 83.3% [10]. - The midstream manufacturing sector also performed well, with profits in the power equipment and new energy sectors growing by 52.5% [10]. - The energy and materials sector benefited from policy changes, with industrial metals and precious metals seeing profit increases of 45.2% and 58.7%, respectively [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The current market dynamics suggest a need for a balanced strategy, moving from an aggressive "only attack" approach to a more defensive "balance attack and defense" strategy [18][25]. - A suggested allocation strategy includes maintaining a 50% equity position, diversifying across growth, stable, high-dividend, and cyclical sectors to mitigate risks [19][20]. - The article warns that if the market enters the third phase characterized by bubble-like valuations and extreme market sentiment, a shift to a defensive strategy will be necessary [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article highlights the importance of sustainable performance growth, questioning whether the current high growth in tech stocks can be maintained amid macroeconomic challenges [13][14]. - It draws parallels with the U.S. market's slow bull experience, emphasizing the need for solid earnings support for a sustainable bull market [14]. - The article concludes that for the A-share market to transition into a long-term bull market, several factors, including macroeconomic stability and improved corporate governance, must be addressed [16][25].