“近期”仍存在降息空间！美联储“三把手”放鸽，市场押注12月降息概率突破50%

Core Viewpoint - The labor market is cooling, increasing downside risks to employment while inflation risks are easing. The current monetary policy is in a mild tightening state, but the restrictive level is lower than before recent actions [1][4][8]. Group 1: Employment and Inflation Risks - As the labor market cools, the downside risks to employment have increased, while inflation faces reduced upward risks. The core inflation continues to trend downward without evidence of secondary effects from tariffs [7][9]. - The September non-farm payroll data showed mixed results, with an unexpected rise in unemployment, indicating a significant weakening in the job market [7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for further adjustments in the federal funds rate to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, balancing the dual objectives of the Federal Reserve [8][9]. - Following the recent rate cuts, there are noticeable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further cuts in December, complicating the decision-making process [6][8]. Group 3: Inflation Targeting Challenges - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to the long-term target of 2% while avoiding excessive harm to the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will continue to push prices higher next year, but inflation is projected to return to the 2% target by 2027 [9].