2026美国政治展望：一切为了中选（国金宏观赵宏鹤）

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming midterm elections are critical for the Trump administration, with potential losses posing significant risks to its political power and policy direction [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trump's Political Landscape - Losing the midterm elections would be a heavy burden for Trump, impacting both domestic and foreign policy [4][5]. - Historical trends indicate that the party of the sitting president often loses control of the House of Representatives during midterm elections, with 15 out of 20 instances resulting in losses [10][12]. - The Republican Party currently holds a slim majority in the House, with 219 seats compared to 214 for the Democrats, making the retention of control challenging [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The U.S. is facing rising living costs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing from a low of 2.3% to around 3%, driven by tariff policies [11]. - Unemployment risks are growing due to structural changes in the economy, particularly from advancements in artificial intelligence, which are displacing lower-level jobs [11][12]. - Wealth inequality is worsening, with the top 1% of households owning 30.9% of the nation's wealth, highlighting a significant disparity in wealth distribution [12][18]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The Trump administration is expected to focus on alleviating existing economic issues while avoiding the creation of new problems, particularly in light of the upcoming elections [17][20]. - A potential policy combination for the first half of next year includes a reduction in tariffs and fiscal easing, although this carries the risk of rising inflation [20]. - The administration may need to implement new fiscal plans to address economic disparities, potentially through tax cuts aimed at middle and low-income groups [19][20]. Group 4: U.S.-China Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China summit is expected to focus on maintaining stable relations, with potential agreements on tariffs and trade measures [23][24]. - The administration's approach to China will likely be influenced by the need to address domestic issues while navigating international relations [21][24].