就业数据真空或促使联储12月不降息——9月非农数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, although structural issues remain. The report shows an increase in non-farm employment that exceeded market expectations, but the growth is concentrated in a few sectors, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the labor market [3][8]. Employment Situation - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the expected 50,000, with revisions to previous months showing a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [16][18]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [20][19]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and health services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), which together accounted for about 90% of total job additions [18][19]. Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year wage growth remained at 3.8% [27][29]. - The average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating a low level of labor utilization [27]. Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [29]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, as the next non-farm payroll report will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting [14][15]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that the Fed may not cut rates in December, but further cuts are anticipated in early 2024, contingent on sustained improvements in employment data [15][14].