纽约联储主席称近期仍存降息空间，12月美联储究竟降还是不降？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, influenced by recent statements from New York Fed President John Williams, which have shifted the probability of a rate cut from 30% to over 60% [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that current policies are slightly tight, with increasing risks in the labor market, suggesting there is room for a rate cut [2][3]. - Williams noted that inflation risks are diminishing (current CPI year-on-year at 3%), while unemployment risks are rising (September unemployment rate at 4.4%), leading to a shift in monetary policy from "significantly tight" to "moderately tight" [2][3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into "dovish" and "hawkish" camps, focusing on whether inflation will continue to cool and the extent of labor market weakness [3]. - Key figures in the dovish camp include Williams, who supports a rate cut, and Fed Governor Milan, who advocates for a 25 basis point cut if voting is critical [4]. - The cautious camp includes Dallas Fed President Logan, who believes a rate cut in December is unlikely, and Boston Fed President Collins, who prefers to maintain current rates to observe inflation resilience [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Williams' remarks, major indices such as the Dow and S&P 500 futures turned positive, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.88% and tech stocks like Nvidia recovering from earlier losses [6]. - Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $80,600 to $84,000, alleviating some liquidation risks for 360,000 traders [6]. - Gold experienced a short-term increase of $10 but still recorded a weekly decline of 0.44%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell as the market anticipated a more accommodative stance [6]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, 2025, with key economic data releases, including the November CPI on December 18 and non-farm payroll data on December 16 [8]. - The capital market remains highly sensitive to rate cut expectations, with investors closely monitoring Fed officials' statements and focusing on stable earnings from tech leaders and interest-sensitive assets [8].