彭博：伯克希尔“买入谷歌”不像是巴菲特的决策？

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent significant investment in Google, purchasing shares at approximately 40 times free cash flow, raises concerns as it contradicts Warren Buffett's investment principles regarding high valuations and complex technologies [1][3][4][5]. Investment Analysis - The investment in Alphabet marks a departure from Buffett's long-standing rule of avoiding businesses that are difficult to understand, which has historically helped the company avoid pitfalls like the internet bubble of the late 1990s [3][4]. - The high purchase price, at about 40 times free cash flow, is notably above the S&P 500's average of approximately 26 times since 1991, indicating a premium valuation [4][5]. - This investment is seen as a bet on future growth, requiring Alphabet to achieve an annual free cash flow growth of 13% to 23% over the next three to five years to justify its valuation [8]. Leadership Transition - The timing of the investment coincides with a critical leadership transition at Berkshire, as Buffett prepares to step down, suggesting that incoming CEO Greg Abel may be influencing a shift in investment strategy [6]. - If this speculation holds true, it could signal a new approach that contrasts sharply with the traditional methods favored by Berkshire's shareholders, focusing on paying more now for potential future growth [6][8]. Market Context - This move places Berkshire at the center of the ongoing debate on whether the current AI investments are overvalued, reflecting a broader market sentiment [7][8]. - Despite the potential for growth in AI, there remains caution among investors, with a recent survey indicating that 45% of institutional investors view the AI bubble as a significant market risk [8].