芯片涨价潮,来了
半导体行业观察·2025-11-23 03:37

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip industry is experiencing a significant price surge driven by unprecedented demand from AI applications and a supply reduction, marking a strong recovery in the sector [1][4][15]. Price Surge in Storage Chips - The price of DDR5 chips increased by 102% within a month, while DDR4 saw a rise of over 90% [1][3]. - Samsung's DDR5-5600 (16GB) DRAM price tripled from 69,000 KRW to 208,050 KRW in two months, with contract prices for server memory chips raised by 30% to 60% [3][4]. - NAND spot prices rose approximately 50% over six months, while DRAM spot prices surged by 300%, significantly exceeding the growth seen during the 2016-2018 storage cycle [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core reason for the price increase is the dual impact of surging demand and reduced supply, with major manufacturers reallocating capacity to higher-margin products like HBM and DDR5, resulting in a 25% reduction in traditional storage supply [4][12]. - AI server requirements are driving demand, with DRAM usage in AI servers being about eight times that of traditional servers, and NAND Flash usage three times higher [4][12]. Impact on the Semiconductor Industry - The price increase in storage chips is causing a ripple effect across the semiconductor industry, affecting GPUs, SoCs, and passive components [6][8]. - GPU prices are expected to rise as manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD prepare to increase graphics card prices due to the rising costs of GDDR memory linked to storage chips [6][7]. - The cost of passive components is also rising, with companies like Fenghua High-Tech announcing price increases of 5% to 30% due to higher raw material costs [8][9]. Market Reactions and Adjustments - Smartphone manufacturers are delaying storage chip purchases due to soaring prices, with some companies reducing RAM specifications to manage costs [10][11]. - The low-end smartphone market may face significant challenges, potentially leading to production bottlenecks and increased losses for entry-level models [11][12]. Long-term Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the storage industry will enter a "super cycle" driven by AI, with global storage revenue expected to reach $200 billion by 2025 and nearly $300 billion by 2027 [15]. - The price surge is expected to create structural differentiation in the market, with high-end chips remaining in tight supply while mid-range chips may face price adjustments by 2026 [15][16].