雪球·2025-11-23 04:46Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate about the "AI bubble" following Nvidia's strong earnings report, highlighting the contrast between impressive financial results and market skepticism regarding potential overvaluation in the AI sector [2][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia reported a revenue of $57 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2026, a year-on-year increase of 62%, and a net profit of $31.9 billion, up 65% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations [4]. - Despite the strong earnings, Nvidia's stock price fell for two consecutive days after the report, dropping 15.7% from its peak as of November 21 [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Prominent short-seller Michael Burry raised concerns about Nvidia's chip lifespan, stock dilution, and the "circular financing" among AI companies, suggesting that revenue recognition issues exist within these transactions [8]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, acknowledged the presence of a bubble but indicated that external factors are needed to burst it, which may not stem from tighter monetary policy but could arise from higher wealth taxes [8]. - Charles Claflin, a strategist known for predicting the 1999 tech stock crash, suggested that concerns about an "AI bubble" are exaggerated, noting that today's tech giants have robust business models and stable cash flows, unlike the dot-com era [8]. Group 3: AI Industry Dynamics - Google has made significant investments in AI, with its stock rising 3.53% after the release of its Gemini 3 model, pushing its market cap to $3.62 trillion, surpassing Microsoft [11]. - Google plans to double its computing capacity every six months over the next 4-5 years, with capital expenditures expected to reach $91 billion to $93 billion in 2025 [14]. - The combined capital expenditures of major AI players, including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, are projected to reach $380 billion this year [15]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey indicated that 45% of fund managers view the "AI bubble" as the biggest tail risk, a significant increase from 33% in October, reflecting heightened caution regarding tech stock valuations [15]. - The survey also revealed that 54% of respondents consider "going long on the seven tech giants" as the most crowded trade, indicating a concentrated bullish sentiment in the market [15].