中国经济展望：不确定性下的韧性与再平衡｜宏观经济

Group 1 - UBS forecasts that China's economy will gradually show resilience and achieve rebalancing from 2026 to 2027, driven by moderate policy expansion and structural reforms [2][3] - By 2027, real estate activity is expected to stabilize, export growth will return to normal, and consumer confidence will remain steady, supporting stable GDP growth [3] - The "new economy" is anticipated to be a key driver of future economic growth, supported by innovation and continuous optimization of industrial structure [4][5] Group 2 - The "new economy" encompasses new industries, new business formats, and new models, including modern agriculture, advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, and information technology services [5] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes technological innovation and self-reliance, aiming for breakthroughs in key technology areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and services is projected to account for nearly 13% of total fixed asset investment by 2024, doubling since 2016 [7] Group 3 - In response to external uncertainties and the need to restore consumer and business confidence, UBS expects China to implement moderate macroeconomic policies in 2026, with a growth target set between 4.5% and 5.0% [9] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to expand by about 1% of GDP in 2026, supporting local government spending and infrastructure investment [9] - The shift in consumption policy aims to significantly increase the proportion of resident consumption in GDP from 40% in 2024 to 43%-45% by 2030, focusing on structural improvements rather than short-term stimuli [10]