12名票委已有5人倾向“不降息”，市场为美联储票委“计票”，“鲍威尔现在不露面，就是为了让每个人声音被听到”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increased dissent among its policymakers, with a notable shift from a consensus-driven approach to individual voting tendencies as the December meeting approaches [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - There is a growing division among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with 5 members indicating a preference to maintain interest rates unchanged next month, creating a near-even split [3][10] - The recent comments from New York Fed President Williams have raised expectations for a rate cut in December, with futures indicating a probability of over 60% for a cut, up from below 30% [3][12] - The increase in dissenting votes this year marks a significant change, as no policy decision has received unanimous support since June [7][11] Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [4][12] - The uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy decisions is a common characteristic, making it difficult for policymakers to gauge the current state of the economy [12] Group 3: Historical Perspective on Dissent - The current level of dissenting votes is higher than in recent history, with some members expressing that this is a healthy development, reminiscent of periods in the 1980s and 1990s when dissent was more common [11][9] - The shift towards a more cautious stance among previously dovish members indicates a potential change in the overall approach to monetary policy [10][11]