就业失业双涨：美国经济到底谁在说谎？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, highlighting both positive and negative signals in the labor market, and suggests that the apparent economic prosperity may be fragile and accompanied by underlying structural issues. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, and far above the Dallas Fed's estimate of 30,000 jobs per month [7] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, and revisions to previous months' data showed a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs, undermining the strength of the September figures [11][12] - The service sector was the main contributor, adding 87,000 jobs, with leisure and hospitality accounting for 47,000 of those jobs, linked to a rebound in consumer spending [18] Group 2: Structural Issues in the Labor Market - There is a structural imbalance in the labor market, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.4%, indicating an influx of 500,000 workers, but job growth lagging behind, leading to a higher unemployment rate [33] - The average duration of unemployment increased to 21 weeks, with 21% of unemployed individuals taking over 27 weeks to find new jobs, indicating decreased labor market fluidity [37] - Job growth is concentrated in low-wage sectors, which has led to a stagnation in overall wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing only by 0.2% [42] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The article suggests that the strong September data may be a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing structural issues and tightening credit conditions posing risks to the economy [53] - The Federal Reserve faces internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with hawks emphasizing employment resilience and doves focusing on rising unemployment rates [50] - Current expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting indicate a 60% probability of maintaining interest rates, reflecting uncertainty due to data gaps and internal disagreements [52]