美联储大消息！12名票委已有5人倾向“不降息”，市场转向"数票"模式

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with differing opinions among voting committee members regarding interest rate decisions, leading to increased market speculation about potential rate cuts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a rate cut, which has raised expectations in the market, with the probability of a rate cut increasing from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, while five out of twelve voting members have expressed a preference to keep rates unchanged, indicating a nearly even split [1][6]. - The increase in dissenting votes this year is notable, as no policy decision has received unanimous approval since June [6][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Investors are shifting focus from the overall consensus of the Federal Reserve to the individual voting tendencies of policymakers, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the December decision is heightened, with some analysts suggesting it could be a "coin toss" situation due to the lack of clarity in economic conditions [15]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, noted that Powell's silence allows committee members to express their views, which is beneficial for healthy debate [5]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has not voted dissentingly in three years, indicated he would not hesitate to do so if he strongly disagrees with the majority [14]. - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized the inherent uncertainty in macroeconomic and monetary policy decisions, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers [15].