2026商用车行业淘汰赛加速！决胜之关键在于这四“密钥”

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle market in China is expected to enter a new historical development phase by 2026, characterized by a stable fluctuation and further market differentiation, where the fate of companies will depend on their ability to find structural "singularities" within this differentiated landscape [1][12]. Market Trends and Predictions - The terminal sales of commercial vehicles in China are projected to reach 3.13 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 10% [3]. - Despite the growth, the industry is still in a cyclical downturn, with traditional growth drivers weakening significantly due to economic structural transformation [5]. - The recovery in 2025 is driven by a structural upturn supported by policy, supply, and market demand, with new energy vehicle (NEV) demand becoming the core growth engine [5][6]. 2026 Market Outlook - The expected sales volume for commercial vehicles in 2026 is around 3 million units, with a weak total elasticity due to cyclical bottoming and structural support [7]. - The market will experience a steady operation supported by an annual replacement volume of 2.6 million units from the previous high sales base during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [7]. Structural Support Factors - Continued macro fiscal and tax policies are expected to support the market, although their impact may weaken over time [9]. - Environmental requirements are likely to expand the scope of clean transportation, promoting the penetration of new energy vehicles [9]. - The supercharging model will facilitate the application of pure electric vehicles, gradually breaking into medium and long-distance transportation [9]. - Unmanned freight transport is anticipated to reach a critical scaling point in 2026, despite existing challenges [11]. Key Competitive Factors - The next phase of the commercial vehicle market will see intensified competition driven by energy and technology transformations, with traditional and new energy vehicle sales diverging significantly [12]. - Companies must seize the rapid penetration period of new energy commercial vehicles to establish a leading position in the market [13]. - Focus on fixed-distance, controllable routes for medium and long-distance scenarios will be crucial for providing comprehensive electric operation solutions [13]. - New technologies are expected to accelerate the transition from traditional value chains to new value chain cores, emphasizing lifecycle value and ecosystem integration [18]. Conclusion - The insights from the presentation provide actionable references for commercial vehicle companies in China, highlighting the importance of understanding market trends and embracing changes to identify structural "singularities" for competitive advantage [20].