【策略周报】全球共振高位调整，耐心等待情绪企稳

Important Events Review - On November 20, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an unexpected increase of 119,000 in non-farm employment for September, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%. This report does not resolve the current divisions within the Federal Reserve, leading to a decrease in expectations for a rate cut in December to below 40%, resulting in a general decline in global assets [2] - On November 20, China maintained its LPR quotes, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [2] - On November 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October CPI report due to funding interruptions and postponed the November CPI data release to December 18. This creates a "data fog" for the Federal Reserve in formulating monetary policy, although New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut soon, which significantly boosted rate cut expectations [2] Weekly Market Review - The bond market is expected to experience short-term narrow fluctuations. In the absence of catalytic factors, the unchanged LPR this month, along with tax periods and government bond payments, has led to a slight increase in funding prices, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a small upward trend [4] - The A-share market is undergoing a period of adjustment with weak market sentiment. The overseas markets are also experiencing high-level adjustments, leading to a decline in A-share sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90% weekly. In terms of industry performance, the banking sector experienced relatively smaller declines, while previously strong sectors such as new energy, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals faced larger adjustments [5]