国泰海通｜建材：水泥出海国别研究之埃塞俄比亚

Economic Overview - Ethiopia, with a population exceeding 130 million, is the second most populous country in Africa and has a rapidly growing economy despite its low development level [1] - The country faces significant investment challenges due to high inflation and severe foreign exchange shortages, with the Ethiopian birr depreciating from 58:1 to 149:1 against the US dollar between July 2024 and October 2025 [1] Cement Supply and Demand - The cement production and sales in Ethiopia are experiencing rapid growth, driven by economic development and population increase [1] - Major cement production facilities include a 1.3 million ton line by West Cement launched in October 2020 and a 5 million ton line by Lemi set to launch in August 2024, which will help alleviate cement shortages [1] Competitive Landscape - The Ethiopian cement market is characterized by five major companies, with West Cement leading at 6.3 million tons of capacity, holding a 43% market share [1] - Other significant players include Dangote and Derba, each with 2.5 million tons of capacity, followed by Messebo and Habesha with 2.1 million and 1.4 million tons, respectively [1] Profitability and Trends - The profitability of the cement sector is under short-term pressure due to multiple factors, including the large-scale production capacity coming online, rapid currency depreciation, and delays in infrastructure projects affecting local demand [2] - Cement prices have dropped sharply from approximately $120 per ton in the first half of 2024 to $50 per ton, impacting profitability [2]