光大证券研究·2025-11-23 23:05Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the imbalance in global oil supply and demand, leading to a decline in international oil prices, with OPEC+ planning to pause production increases to alleviate the oversupply situation [4] - As of November 21, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $62.51 and $57.98 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.8% and 3.3% respectively from the previous week [4] - OPEC's production increased to 28.46 million barrels per day in October 2025, marking a 6.68% rise since the beginning of the year, contributing to the shift from a tightening supply to an oversupply scenario [4] Group 2 - The "Big Three" oil companies in China, namely China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, demonstrated resilience in their earnings during the oil price downturn, with net profit declines of -4.9%, -32.2%, and -12.6% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - In Q3 2025, the net profit declines for these companies were less severe compared to major international oil giants, showcasing their ability to withstand the pressures of falling oil prices [5] - The performance of the "Big Three" during this period reflects their cyclical resilience, as they maintained higher earnings levels than historical oil price periods [5] Group 3 - Expectations of a cold winter in 2025, potentially influenced by a "double La Niña" phenomenon, are likely to drive significant growth in natural gas demand during the heating season [6] - The "Big Three" are enhancing their market expansion efforts, leading to rapid growth in natural gas sales, benefiting from the ongoing market reforms in China's natural gas sector [6] - The proportion of regulated pricing in the natural gas sales of the "Big Three" is expected to continue decreasing, allowing for greater price flexibility in the unregulated segment [6] Group 4 - The natural gas business of the "Big Three" is anticipated to contribute significantly to operating profits during the heating season in Q4 2025, especially amid fluctuating oil prices [7]