【光大研究每日速递】20251124

Market Overview - The market is currently in a bull phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase due to government guidance on a "slow bull" policy. In the short term, the market may lack strong catalysts, and investors may adopt a more cautious approach as the year-end approaches, leading to a focus on consolidation and accumulation [4]. Short-term Opportunities - The market has shifted from previous range-bound fluctuations to a continuous decline influenced by overseas trading sentiment. The artificial intelligence sector continues to adjust, while sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment have seen significant corrections. There may be short-term rebound opportunities in oversold sectors, but the overall market is expected to continue wide fluctuations. The main strategy during this phase should focus on dividend allocation [5]. Fixed Income Market - The convertible bond market and equity market both experienced declines this week. Since the beginning of 2025, both markets have been on an upward trend. Currently, the remaining duration of existing convertible bonds is shortening, and the number of quality individual bonds is decreasing. High-priced and overvalued convertible bonds may face adjustment pressure, making trading more challenging. It is recommended to assess bonds based on their terms and underlying stock conditions, and to pay attention to new bond opportunities in high-demand industries [6]. Oil and Gas Sector - The international oil price is under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, but OPEC+ has paused production increases, which may alleviate the global oversupply situation. The resilience of the "three major oil companies" during the oil price downturn highlights their ability to navigate through cycles. With expectations of a cold winter, there is potential for significant growth in natural gas demand, making the natural gas business of the "three major oil companies" particularly valuable [8]. Chemical Industry - The organic silicon industry is expected to improve due to the implementation of decisions made at industry conferences, which may enhance the competitive landscape. Recent trends in organic silicon prices and profitability indicate this improvement. In the medium to long term, steady growth in apparent consumption will support demand, while a slowdown in new capacity additions will ease supply pressures, leading to a more favorable industry outlook [8]. AI Healthcare Sector - Medical technology company achieved a revenue of 4.05 billion RMB for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 33%. The gross profit was 1.44 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 35.7%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year. Adjusted EBITA was 550 million RMB, showing a 14% increase compared to the previous year after excluding one-time gains. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million RMB, up 54% year-on-year [9]. Lenovo Group - Lenovo reported a revenue of 20.452 billion USD for FY26Q2, a 15% year-on-year increase. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 512 million USD, up 25% year-on-year. All business segments achieved double-digit growth, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue, an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year [9].