中金 | 股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term bull market in the U.S. stock market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, leading to a significant increase in market capitalization relative to GDP, which has risen from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% currently [2][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The "腾笼换鸟" (tenglong huan niao) policy initiated by the Reagan administration aimed to enhance economic efficiency by phasing out outdated industries and promoting high-tech sectors, which helped reverse the long-term decline in U.S. economic efficiency [16][17]. - The policy included measures such as reducing subsidies, promoting international trade, and stimulating high-tech manufacturing, contributing to productivity growth [16][17]. Group 2: Microeconomic Enterprises - U.S. companies have shifted focus towards profitability quality and shareholder returns, with an increasing emphasis on cash flow and dividends since the 1980s [17][23]. - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 facilitated stock buybacks, allowing companies to manage their stock prices more effectively, which became a common practice post-1980s [23][24]. Group 3: Asset Side - Incremental Capital Flow - Long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, supported by the rise of institutional investors and changes in retirement savings plans, significantly increasing household participation in equity markets [28][31]. - The share of long-term investors, such as pension funds and mutual funds, in the U.S. stock market rose to nearly 40% in the 1980s, enhancing market stability and price discovery [31][33]. Group 4: Globalization and Foreign Capital - The globalization process initiated in the 1980s led to significant inflows of foreign capital into the U.S. stock market, with overseas investors accumulating $2.36 trillion in U.S. equities from 1980 to mid-2025 [36][38]. - The "美元大循环" (dollar circulation) phenomenon facilitated the return of overseas dollars to the U.S., further supporting the bull market [36][38]. Group 5: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's "put option" policy has provided a safety net for the stock market, with interventions during major downturns since the late 1980s, reinforcing market confidence [40][41]. - The Fed's increasing focus on stock market performance has been evident, with more frequent mentions of the stock market in FOMC minutes since the 1980s [40][41].