中金：房地产金融化险“下半场”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the financial risks in the real estate sector have been effectively mitigated through various policies, and the focus now shifts to managing personal mortgage defaults and handling existing corporate debts [2][40]. - The liquidity crisis of high-leverage real estate companies in 2021 marked the beginning of the current round of financial risks in the real estate sector, which expanded from corporate to residential sectors in 2022 due to delivery issues [2][3]. - The "保交楼" (guarantee delivery) initiative has shown significant progress, with delivery rates exceeding 90% in most regions, and the approval amount for "白名单" (white list) loans surpassing 7 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating improved financing conditions for real estate companies [4][40]. Group 2 - As of mid-2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for personal housing mortgages and corporate real estate loans are 0.8% and 4.1% respectively, showing stability compared to similar overseas markets [4][8][10]. - The early repayment rate of residential mortgages has increased significantly from 5% in 2019 to an average of 10% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a proactive approach by residents to reduce systemic financial risks [17][20]. - The risk of mortgage defaults is relatively low, with the current loan-to-value (LTV) ratio estimated at around 40%, and stress tests suggest that significant risks only arise if property prices decline by more than 15% [17][22][23]. Group 3 - The corporate debt risk in the real estate sector has seen a reduction in new risks since 2024, but the focus now is on managing existing debt, with 61% of listed real estate companies having a debt service coverage ratio below 1 [29][31]. - The scale of real estate trusts has decreased by over 70% since 2019, indicating a significant release of risk, while corporate loans and bond scales remain stable [29][32]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, banks' real estate exposure is estimated at 55 trillion yuan, with a risk buffer of approximately 16 trillion yuan, suggesting that banks are currently well-positioned to manage potential defaults [35][38].