Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, which is contributing to the active market environment and influx of new capital into the A-share market, with data indicators and reasons summarized until July 2025 [3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - The growth rate of non-bank deposits remains high, with year-on-year increases of 16.7%, 9.7%, and 11.8% for August, September, and October respectively [3]. - The growth rate of household demand deposits has rebounded from nearly 0% at the beginning of 2024 to 7.4% in October 2025, while time deposits have decreased from around 15% to 10.5% [3]. - Non-financial corporate demand deposits have also increased, reaching 10.7% in October, while time deposits have dropped from 7.3% to 1.4% [3]. Group 2: Investor Activity - Investor activity remains relatively high, with over 2.3 million new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from August to October, and margin trading balances rising from 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan [3][8]. - The turnover rate, calculated based on free float market capitalization, has decreased to around 4%, still above historical averages [3][10]. Group 3: Bank Wealth Management Products - The structure of bank wealth management products has changed, with a decrease in the proportion of long-term products as the market has warmed, dropping from 16.9% to 15.7% for products with a term of over one year [13]. - The annualized yield of bank wealth management products has declined, with median yields for various terms showing a decrease over the past year [15]. - The high liquidity and low volatility of short-term products continue to attract investors, especially in a recovering equity market [15]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to remain active, with bank wealth management likely to further invigorate, supported by upcoming expirations of numerous long-term products [17]. - The article anticipates that the A-share market's upward trend since September 24 will continue into 2026, driven by various macroeconomic factors [17]. - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with ongoing support from international order restructuring and domestic innovation trends [21].
中金：银行理财活化助力A股资金正反馈