美国9月失业率升至过去5年来最高水平——海外周报第115期

Key Points - The article highlights the mixed signals in the economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating both recovery and challenges in different sectors [2][4][14] - US non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over five years [13][45] - Eurozone's composite PMI remained stable, but manufacturing showed signs of contraction [14] - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q3, with core CPI showing an increasing trend [14] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September non-farm employment data was better than expected, with a growth of 119,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% [13] - October existing home sales in the US reached a new eight-month high, increasing by 1.2% from September [13] - November's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US hit a four-month low at 51.9 [13] - Eurozone's November composite PMI was stable at 52.4, with service PMI at its best performance in a year and a half [14] - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 1.8% on an annualized basis, with core CPI rising by 3% in October [14] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The WEI index in the US rose to 2.29, indicating a rebound in economic activity [5][17] - Germany's WAI index also increased to 0.13, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [5][17] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1% for the week ending November 14, up from 5.9% the previous week [19] - Mortgage rates in the US rose to 6.26% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, with mortgage applications declining by 5.2% [23] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 295.58, down 2.2% from the previous week [30] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.94 per gallon, reflecting a rise of 0.4% from the previous week [37] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with respective indices dropping to 0.267 and 1.028 [8][33] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed widening swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [36] Group 6: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 220,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.974 million [27]