开工率普遍回落——每周经济观察第46期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also addressing the implications for investment opportunities and risks. Group 1: Economic Activity - The WEI index has shown a low recovery, reaching 5.43% as of November 16, 2025, up from 4.83% the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [2][9] - Since the end of September 2025, the WEI index has generally declined, primarily driven by decreases in infrastructure, domestic demand, and industrial production [9][10] Group 2: Demand Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 14% as of November 16, 2025, compared to a growth of 5.8% in October [3][15] - In the real estate sector, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 21% in the third week of November across 67 cities [3][13] Group 3: Production Insights - Infrastructure data shows a continued decline, with cement shipment rates at 33.4% in the second week of November, unchanged from the previous week but down from 36.4% year-on-year [3][17] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has also decreased to 25%, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous week and 7.7 percentage points from the same week last year [3][17] Group 4: Trade and Export - Container throughput at Chinese ports has marginally declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% as of November 16, 2025 [3][27] - The number of vessels departing from major ports has shown a slight rebound but remains lower year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in trade [3][28] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic and international commodity prices have generally decreased, with the South China index down 1.8% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.2% [3][42] - Agricultural product prices have also fallen, with pork prices down 0.8% and vegetable prices down 0.7% [3][45] Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The issuance of new local government bonds has accelerated, with 224 billion yuan issued in the week of November 24, 2025, including 215.3 billion yuan in special bonds [3][49] - The yields on government bonds have remained stable, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year yields reported at 1.4008%, 1.5907%, and 1.8166%, respectively [3][64]