短期调整不改慢牛趋势 ：申万期货早间评论-20251124

Market Overview - Recent stock market pullback has led to significant inflows into ETFs, with over 70 billion yuan net inflow into stock ETFs from November 17 to November 21, and more than 40 billion yuan on November 21 alone [1] - External factors such as declining expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising concerns over AI bubbles are identified as primary reasons for the market's recent downturn [1] - Despite these challenges, support from domestic technology sectors and "anti-involution" policies suggests a continued "slow bull" market for Chinese assets [1] Key Products: Stock Index, Oil, and Double焦 - Stock Index: US indices rebounded after a significant drop, with the market turnover at 1.98 trillion yuan. Financing balance decreased by 5.939 billion yuan to 24,743.85 billion yuan on November 20. The focus remains on technology self-reliance as a long-term direction [2][11] - Oil: SC night trading fell by 1.46%. US sanctions on Russian oil companies are set to take effect, and the overall downward trend in oil prices is expected to continue [3][14] - Double焦: Recent trading showed fluctuations, with a decrease in焦煤 positions. Supply recovery is noted, and demand from the construction sector has increased, leading to a significant reduction in overall inventory [3][21] Industry News - The G20 summit concluded in Johannesburg, emphasizing the commitment to multilateral cooperation and common development amid global challenges [6] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with German Chancellor Merz, highlighting the importance of a stable and high-quality strategic partnership between China and Germany [7] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is increasing support for enterprises in Xiong'an New Area, focusing on innovation and industrial clustering [8] External Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.98% on November 21, while the FTSE China A50 futures dropped by 2.66% [10] - The dollar index slightly decreased by 0.07%, indicating a stable currency environment [10] Financial Instruments Commentary - Government bonds saw a slight decline, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.812%. The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance [12] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with long-term support for prices anticipated due to global supply-demand shifts [19] - The rubber market is under pressure from increasing supply, while the demand side remains weak, leading to expected price corrections [16]