两大芯片巨头预测：DRAM价格将大幅上涨

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM market is experiencing a "Super Cycle" driven by strong demand from the AI industry, benefiting major South Korean memory manufacturers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with expectations of significant increases in average selling prices (ASP) for DRAM products in Q4 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Pricing - The demand for DRAM is surging, particularly for high-value products like server DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to a substantial increase in ASP, which is expected to exceed initial forecasts [2][3]. - Samsung Electronics anticipates a double-digit percentage increase in DRAM ASP for Q4 compared to the previous quarter, while SK Hynix expects a high single-digit percentage increase [3][4]. - General-purpose DRAM for PCs and smartphones is also facing severe supply shortages, primarily due to manufacturers prioritizing HBM production and reducing supply of older DDR4 products, resulting in significant price hikes [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Strategies - Major IT companies are adopting aggressive strategies to secure memory supply, with Chinese tech giants like Xiaomi and Alibaba accepting price increases of over 50% compared to the previous quarter [4]. - Lenovo has signed long-term contracts to ensure memory supply through 2026, reflecting the urgency in securing DRAM amidst tight supply conditions [4]. - Samsung is reportedly taking a more aggressive pricing strategy compared to competitors in the general-purpose DRAM market, indicating strong demand and a favorable pricing environment for suppliers [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley has addressed concerns regarding potential overproduction of DDR4, asserting that major manufacturers are focusing resources on HBM and will not significantly increase DDR4 supply due to high costs and time requirements [6][7]. - The demand for older generation DRAM remains robust, driven by system compatibility and stability concerns, with expectations of further price increases for DDR4 due to structural supply shortages [7][8]. - The current storage cycle is characterized by a longer duration and increased intensity, driven by AI demand, contrasting with previous cycles that were heavily influenced by consumer markets [10][11]. Group 4: Technological Implications - The shift towards AI applications is expected to extend the demand for storage solutions beyond traditional consumer markets, impacting various sectors including enterprises and government [11][12]. - The potential adoption of LPDDR storage in next-generation AI servers by companies like NVIDIA could exacerbate supply shortages, as LPDDR and HBM require more resources and have higher production complexities compared to DDR [12].