独家洞察 | 美国史上最长政府停摆终结，但财政的“坑”依旧在

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has ended with a temporary funding bill, but underlying issues such as rising debt and political conflicts remain unresolved, posing risks for future stability [1][4][8]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The shutdown concluded on November 12, with a temporary funding bill allowing most government agencies to operate until January 30, 2026, but core disagreements on healthcare spending persist, indicating potential future shutdowns [3][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Risks - The shutdown has highlighted the escalating U.S. debt crisis, with public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, significantly above the average for developed economies [4]. - During the shutdown, U.S. government debt increased from $37.4 trillion to $38 trillion, exacerbating fiscal risks and limiting investments in critical areas such as education and infrastructure [4][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Post-shutdown, the market is focused on the timely release of economic data, particularly for October, which may be delayed or noisy, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [6][7]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has surged from $300 billion in July to nearly $1 trillion in November, suggesting improved liquidity conditions as the government reopens [7]. - Political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties remain, with a 30% market expectation of another shutdown by the end of January 2026, as both parties may leverage the situation for negotiations [7][8].