存储之王回归？大摩：三星HBM业务已实现全面赶超，2026年盈利或暴增150%

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Samsung is regaining dominance in the memory market with its "technology-first" strategy, projecting a more than 150% increase in earnings per share from 2025 to 2026 [3][5]. Group 1: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Developments - Samsung has achieved significant progress in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sector, with HBM4 products undergoing multiple qualification tests, and initial results expected in early December [3]. - The company currently has an effective DRAM capacity of 500,000 wafers, significantly surpassing its competitors [3][5]. - Samsung's unique advantages in high-speed (>11 Gbps) and end-to-end solutions from DRAM to packaging are expected to enhance its market share [3]. Group 2: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM order fulfillment rate has dropped to around 70% of customer demand, indicating a continued visibility into the first half of 2026 [3]. - Samsung's management is adopting a more rational strategy, focusing on sustainable profitability through collaboration with key customers rather than chasing market trends [3]. Group 3: NAND Pricing Forecasts - NAND contract pricing is expected to increase significantly, with forecasts indicating a rise of 25-30% for enterprise SSDs in Q4 2025 and a gradual decrease in growth rates into 2026 [4]. Group 4: Foundry Business Recovery - Samsung's foundry business is showing signs of recovery, with improved utilization rates and advanced process performance driving profitability [5]. - The company has secured multiple orders in the 2nm process area, indicating a positive shift in its customer-centric culture [5]. - Morgan Stanley projects Samsung's earnings per share to reach 14,464 KRW in 2026, nearly 50% higher than current market consensus [5].