【招银研究】海外降息预期反复，全球风险偏好收缩——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.11.24-11.28）

Group 1: U.S. Macro Strategy - The expectation for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with a significant drop in the probability of cuts due to hawkish signals from some Federal Reserve officials and the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [2] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of downward pressure, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, despite a rebound in job creation [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.9%, driven by concerns over the AI investment bubble, high valuations, and the shifting interest rate outlook [3] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The core contradiction in the U.S. stock market is between high valuations and the uncertain future of AI, with a recommendation to adjust annual return expectations to single-digit levels [3] - A 10%-20% market correction is anticipated, with a current 5% decline already observed, suggesting a continued wait for more favorable valuations [3] - Diversification is advised, with attention to sectors like industrials, utilities, energy, and healthcare beyond technology stocks [3] Group 3: U.S. Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate around 4.1%, with a long-term downward trend anticipated due to the Fed's accommodative stance [4] - Investors are encouraged to maintain positions in 2-5 year bonds, with long-term bonds recommended for purchase when yields exceed 4.2% [4] Group 4: Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar may experience a slight rebound in the short term, but long-term pressures are expected due to a generally weak non-U.S. currency environment [5] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate slightly, influenced by the narrowing interest rate differential and increasing market willingness to exchange [5] - Gold is entering a short-term adjustment phase, with a long-term bullish outlook, although significant price increases are not expected in 2026 [5] Group 5: Chinese Macro Strategy - Domestic demand remains weak, with significant declines in housing and land transactions, and a notable drop in car sales [7] - Export momentum is weakening, although overall data for November shows some resilience, particularly in container throughput [7] - Fiscal revenue showed mixed results, with tax revenues increasing by 8.6%, while non-tax revenues fell sharply [8] Group 6: Policy and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy aims to standardize pricing in the lithium iron phosphate industry, which may impact pricing strategies [9] - The LPR remains unchanged, indicating a stable monetary policy environment with limited expectations for further cuts [9] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with long-term bonds underperforming short-term ones, and a cautious approach is advised for long-term bond investments [10] Group 7: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9% and the ChiNext Index down 6.1%, influenced by external market conditions and high valuations [10] - The outlook for A-shares remains positive for the next year, driven by expected liquidity easing and potential earnings recovery [10] - High-valuation technology stocks are sensitive to liquidity changes, while dividend-paying sectors may provide stability [11]