野村首席观点 | 苏博文：亚洲加强内部经贸合作抵御美国加征关税影响

Core Viewpoint - Despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal pressures, the global economy demonstrates significant resilience, primarily driven by the revolutionary transformation of artificial intelligence, flexible adjustments in trade directions by companies, moderate monetary and fiscal policy easing, and an overall loose financial environment [3]. Group 1: Global Economic Analysis - The resilience of the global economy is attributed to several factors, including the AI revolution, flexible trade adjustments, and supportive monetary and fiscal policies [3]. - Inflation in Asia is expected to remain at historically low levels, although China faces challenges related to domestic demand despite maintaining growth in the first three quarters of the year [3]. Group 2: Trade Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The UNDP report indicates that Southeast Asia's total exports to the U.S. may decline by 9.7% due to tariff-induced price increases, with Vietnam potentially experiencing a drop of 19.2%, which is double the regional average [3]. - Following the implementation of U.S. tariff policies, trade among Asian countries has increased, highlighting the region's economic flexibility and the opportunity for mutual development [4].