国泰海通｜策略：噤若寒蝉：风偏下行压制全球权益表现——战术性资产配置周度点评（20251124）

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight position in A/H shares while suggesting a benchmark allocation in US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and the Chinese yuan [1]. Group 1: A/H Shares - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, leading to a tactical overweight recommendation for A/H shares. The significant pressure on global risk appetite has resulted in increased asset volatility and panic selling, which has released micro trading risks [1]. - As the 14th Five-Year Plan begins, the importance of economic growth is highlighted, with a policy window approaching that may establish new market expectations. The regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market [1]. - Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have dissipated, and with tail risks decreasing and the stabilization of RMB assets, the Chinese capital market is entering a phase of valuation recovery and significant growth potential [1]. Group 2: US Stocks - The risk appetite has not yet stabilized, and the market may continue to speculate on AI industry trends, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in US stocks. The US employment report for September was underwhelming, and Federal Reserve officials are cautious in their monetary policy guidance, resulting in a downward revision of future rate cut probabilities [2]. - Despite Nvidia's satisfactory earnings report and guidance, the risk assets have experienced significant volatility, and the overall risk appetite remains substantially reduced [2]. - The company maintains an optimistic view on the AI industry trend, but the market may still engage in speculative expectations in the short term. The risk-return profile of US stocks is considered moderate compared to other major asset classes [2]. Group 3: US Treasuries - The decline in intrinsic inflation stickiness broadens the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment space, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in US Treasuries. The cooling labor market, weaker energy prices, and slow wage growth contribute to this decline [2]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to closely follow the US economic conditions, with a low probability of further tightening. US Treasury yields may experience a moderate decline, with a risk-return profile considered moderate compared to other major asset classes [2]. Group 4: Gold - Global capital market volatility and trading fund dynamics may amplify gold price fluctuations, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in gold. Previous uncertainties from Trump-era policies, worsening geopolitical situations, and ongoing central bank gold purchases have supported gold prices while attracting speculative trading funds [2]. - Recent marginal changes in Eastern European geopolitical situations and capital market volatility may lead to increased gold price fluctuations due to cross-asset fund flows. The risk-return profile of gold is viewed as moderate compared to other major asset classes [2]. Group 5: Chinese Yuan - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the reduction of extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate, leading to a tactical benchmark allocation in the yuan. The Chinese economy is performing steadily, with stronger growth momentum compared to other major economies [3]. - Improved capital market returns and optimistic economic expectations are expected to support the stable appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In the increasingly complex global macro environment, the RMB is anticipated to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation trend with a central tendency of appreciation [3].