繁荣假象？华尔街警告：美国经济过度捆绑AI，一旦投资熄火将引发衰退

Core Insights - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, with major tech companies' capital expenditures reaching 1.1% of GDP [1][3][6] - The US economy's reliance on AI investment has reached a dangerous level, raising concerns about a potential recession if the AI boom turns into a bubble [3][4] - The stock market's wealth effect from AI stocks has provided additional support to the economy, but this dependency poses significant risks [9][11] Economic Contribution of AI - AI-related investments have become the core pillar supporting the US economy, with capital expenditures from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta projected to reach $344 billion, a significant increase from $228 billion last year [6][8] - Barclays estimates that software, computer equipment, and data center investments will boost GDP growth by approximately 1 percentage point in the first half of 2025, largely driven by AI investments [7] Risks Associated with AI Dependency - The recent volatility in AI-related stocks has exposed broader economic risks, with analysts warning that a slowdown in AI investment or a stock price crash could trigger a reverse wealth effect, pushing the fragile labor market into recession [4][11] - A 20-30% decline in stock prices could lower GDP growth by 1-1.5 percentage points, with further declines in AI investment potentially dragging growth down by an additional 0.5 to 1 percentage point [11] Debt Expansion Concerns - The rapid growth of AI-related borrowing poses another risk, with companies like Oracle issuing significant debt for AI infrastructure [12][13] - While the scale of AI-related debt may not directly trigger a financial crisis, the interconnectedness of financial markets means issues in one area could indirectly impact others [14]