美股IPO·2025-11-24 16:19Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised Baidu's target price to $188, indicating a fundamental shift in the company's investment narrative from a traditional search advertising company to an AI infrastructure provider, driven by the sales of Kunlun chips and GPU computing demand, with cloud business revenue expected to grow by 61% by 2026 [1][3]. Revenue Growth and Projections - Baidu's Kunlun chip revenue is projected to surge from approximately RMB 1.3 billion in 2025 to RMB 8.3 billion in 2026, marking a sixfold increase [4]. - The company's core revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projections for 2026 showing a core revenue of RMB 33.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [5]. Cloud and AI Infrastructure - Baidu's cloud business is anticipated to enter a phase of AI-driven, GPU-intensive growth starting in 2025, with AI cloud revenue accounting for about 25% of Baidu's core revenue [8]. - The GPU computing revenue is expected to double by 2026, with Q3 GPU leasing subscription revenue growing by 128% year-on-year [8]. Advertising Business Outlook - Despite rapid expansion in AI marketing services, Morgan Stanley remains cautious about Baidu's advertising business, forecasting a 7% decline in core advertising revenue by 2026 [10]. - Traditional search advertising revenue is projected to continue facing double-digit year-on-year declines, while AI-native marketing services are expected to grow by 55% in 2026 [9]. Asset Impairment and Profitability - The RMB 16 billion asset impairment in Q3 is expected to have a significant positive impact on Baidu's core profitability for 2026-27, reducing annual depreciation expenses by approximately RMB 8 billion [11][12]. - This strategic impairment is aimed at aligning the company's asset base with its revenue-generating capabilities, focusing on high-performance computing assets like GPUs [13]. Valuation Methodology - Morgan Stanley has shifted its valuation approach from a blended P/E ratio to a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the total advertising business at $12 billion and the cloud business at $34 billion, leading to a target price of $188 [13].