“申”度解盘 | 冬藏是为了更好的积蓄能量

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a recent decline, particularly with a significant drop on Friday, affecting previously popular sectors such as computing power and new energy [6][8]. Market Trends - The market has been on an upward trend since April, but has reached a high valuation point, leading to a short-term adjustment period due to external disturbances and liquidity issues from the Federal Reserve [8][9]. - Despite the current adjustments, the long-term slow bull market trend remains intact, with expectations for a rebound towards the end of November and early December [10][11]. Index and Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's equity risk premium (ERP) is at a mid-level, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 remains higher than the ten-year government bond yield, indicating that A-shares still offer high value [9]. - Comparatively, the dividend yield of U.S. stocks is 1.2%, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4%, further supporting the attractiveness of A-shares [9]. Technology Sector Outlook - Anticipation for the release of the new version of DEEPSEEK and various AI applications, along with the upcoming listings of multiple tech unicorns, suggests a positive outlook for the technology sector [9]. - The approval of 16 hard technology funds, including the first batch of AI ETFs, indicates an influx of capital into the tech sector, which is expected to drive growth [9]. Short-term Considerations - The market is expected to take time to find a bottom, with a focus on the adjustments in the technology and new energy sectors, as well as clarity on external disturbances [10]. - The end of November is highlighted as a potential opportunity for a rebound, coinciding with institutional accounting periods and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [10][11].