“鲍威尔盟友”连续发声支持降息，市场对美联储12月降息预期大幅升至80%

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly and John Williams, support a rate cut in December, emphasizing that risks to the labor market have surpassed inflation threats [1][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warns of "non-linear" deterioration risks in the labor market, advocating for a rate cut as managing employment issues is more challenging than addressing inflation [3][7] - New York Fed President John Williams echoes this sentiment, highlighting increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, suggesting room for further rate cuts in the near term [7][8] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller also supports a December rate cut and a more flexible policy approach starting in 2026, noting that tariff-related cost pressures are milder than expected [4][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, market expectations for a rate cut surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from approximately 40% to 80% [4][11] - The U.S. Treasury market reacted positively, with the ten-year Treasury yield dropping to a monthly low of 4.03% [11][13] - Technical factors, such as anticipated monthly index rebalancing and strong demand in recent Treasury auctions, also supported the bond market [13] Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The upcoming December meeting will occur without key employment data for October and November due to government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [6] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some officials advocating for a cautious approach, reflecting the real-world uncertainties rather than groupthink [9] - Daly describes the December decision as a "test of judgment," weighing the risks of action versus inaction, and emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy flexibility [9]