热点思考 | 跟随市场——9月非农点评与12月美联储降息展望（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Insights - The article discusses the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market and the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly regarding the potential for a rate cut in December [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Analysis - The September non-farm payroll data showed a mixed performance, with 119,000 jobs added, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [1][5]. - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-over-month in September, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in August [1][5]. - The rise in the unemployment rate was primarily driven by individuals who were unemployed or left their jobs, while the contribution from new entrants to the labor market remained stable [10][17]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The interest rate cut speculation began after the October FOMC meeting, where Powell's hawkish comments shifted market expectations, leading to volatility in asset prices [3][25]. - Following the mixed non-farm data, the probability of a December rate cut increased slightly by 9% after the November 20 data release, but a more significant rise to nearly 70% occurred after dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 [3][34]. - The uncertainty surrounding the December rate cut is influenced by the lack of timely economic data due to government shutdowns, which may lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach [3][42]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Fed's Stance - Economic fundamentals and the availability of data suggest that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, as the September non-farm data did not provide clear signals of economic strength or weakness [42][43]. - The Fed's risk balance has shifted from a preventive rate cut approach to a more data-dependent strategy, especially as the current interest rates approach neutral levels [42][43]. - Recent statements from Fed officials indicate a divided stance on further rate cuts, with a slight majority opposing immediate cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation and the current economic conditions [42][43].