集运指数大跌近8%，如何看待未来的运力过剩？

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is expected to enter a downward cycle due to a significant delivery of new ships from 2026 to 2028 and a lack of growth in global trade demand, compounded by geopolitical factors that may affect shipping routes [6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main driver of the shipping industry's cyclical nature is the balance between demand surges and supply contractions, leading to periods of prosperity followed by downturns as new ship orders flood the market [7]. - The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have contributed to a decline in global demand, marking the beginning of a downward cycle for the shipping industry after the highs of 2020-2021 [7][8]. - The anticipated delivery of new ships from 2023 to 2028 is projected to create a significant oversupply, with delivery volumes peaking at 3.88 million TEU in 2028, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - According to Linerlytica, the projected delivery capacities from 2023 to 2028 are 2.3 million TEU, 2.95 million TEU, 2.25 million TEU, 1.48 million TEU, 3.13 million TEU, and 3.88 million TEU, indicating a growing supply pressure in the latter years [8]. - The average age of ships being scrapped has increased to 29 years since 2021, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 20-25 years, indicating reluctance among shipowners to retire older vessels despite high profits [8][9]. - The expected growth rate of throughput volume is around 2% from 2026 to 2028, while fleet size is projected to grow by up to 10%, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand [8][9]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Projections - Sea Intelligence's analysis suggests that the peak of excess capacity will occur in 2027, with the overcapacity levels being higher than in 2023 but lower than in 2009 [9][14]. - The comparison of two methods for estimating supply-demand dynamics indicates that the excess capacity in 2027-2028 may be less severe than in 2023, but still significant enough to suggest a potential decline in global shipping rates by approximately 300 points [15]. - The concentration ratio (CR10) in the global shipping industry has increased from less than 60% before 2008 to 84% in 2024, indicating that shipping companies have gained more control over freight rates despite the impending downturn [16].