东兴证券孟斯硕：白酒估值仍处于历史底部

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with a collective revenue of 317.779 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, and a net profit of 122.571 billion yuan, down 6.93% [2][13]. Industry Performance - The liquor industry has been a valuation anchor in the consumer sector, known for its superior profitability and high gross margins, but many companies are currently facing performance declines [2]. - The industry is believed to be at the bottom of the current cycle, which began in 2022, and there is speculation about the emergence of new leaders or dark horses post-adjustment [2][12]. Economic Indicators - The pricing of liquor assets is closely linked to macroeconomic indicators such as the BCI index, PPI, and changes in social financing, with the highest correlation observed with the BCI index under the product price index [8]. - The economic growth model has shifted from real estate-driven to high-tech-driven, impacting overall consumption, including liquor [9]. Comparison of Cycles - The current cycle shares similarities with the 2013-2014 cycle, including economic and policy environments that have pressured liquor consumption [10][11]. - Differences include changes in personal consumption capacity and willingness, as well as the industry's transition from "incremental competition" to "stock competition" [11]. Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to recover as macroeconomic conditions stabilize, with signs of improvement in consumption data since September [12]. - The highest inventory levels have passed, and while destocking may continue for 3-4 quarters, the overall inventory situation is improving [12]. Consumption Trends - The consumption structure is shifting, with lower-priced liquor segments (100-200 yuan) gaining traction, while higher-priced segments face challenges [14]. - Long-term trends indicate that consumption upgrades will continue to drive price increases in the liquor sector [14]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the liquor market is becoming more intense, with strong brands likely to capture market share from weaker competitors [16]. - Companies with a high proportion of self-consumption demand are better positioned to navigate the current cycle [17]. Young Consumer Dynamics - The rise of non-traditional liquor brands and lower-alcohol beverages is indicative of changing preferences among younger consumers, although they are not yet the primary market for traditional liquor [18]. - Brands that effectively engage with younger consumers and adapt to their preferences are likely to emerge as industry leaders [18]. Investment Logic - Current liquor valuations are at historical lows, presenting a strong margin of safety for investors, with expectations of gradual recovery in the sector [19]. - Long-term growth opportunities exist despite a decline in overall consumption, driven by price increases and market consolidation [19].