大摩：“电商Agent”--庞大商业化潜力的AI应用正在“萌芽”

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of AI agents on e-commerce, predicting that by 2030, the GMV of agent-driven e-commerce will reach $385 billion, accounting for 20% of total U.S. e-commerce sales [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - The narrative around AI is shifting from mere conversation to actionable outcomes, with significant commercial implications as users increasingly make purchases based on AI recommendations [3][4]. - Major tech companies like Alibaba and OpenAI are competing to establish themselves as the primary entry points for consumers, with Alibaba's "Qianwen APP" and OpenAI's shopping search functionality leading the charge [5][6]. Group 2: Market Potential - Morgan Stanley views the rise of agent-driven e-commerce as the beginning of a new era, with a projected GMV of $1.9 billion in a baseline scenario and up to $3.85 billion in an optimistic scenario by 2030 [7][8]. - By 2030, it is estimated that 10% to 20% of U.S. e-commerce transactions will be driven by AI agents [8]. Group 3: User Engagement - Currently, 40-50% of users are engaging in commercial activities through AI platforms, indicating a growing trend towards purchasing behavior [9]. - The adoption rates for general AI platforms like ChatGPT (45%) significantly outpace those of retail-specific AI tools (around 10%), suggesting a shift in consumer preference [12]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Major tech companies such as Google, Amazon, and Meta are positioned to benefit from the growth of agent-driven e-commerce, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a positive outlook on their long-term growth potential [4][16]. - Alphabet (GOOGL) has seen 36% of ChatGPT users report making purchases based on AI suggestions, with grocery and household items being the leading categories [17]. - Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) are also rated positively, with target prices set at $315 and $820 respectively, reflecting their strong positions in the evolving market [19].