美股IPO·2025-11-25 10:17Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities believes that Google is making a strong comeback with its self-developed TPU v7p chip and the Gemini model, establishing a full-stack AI ecosystem that enhances its competitive position in the market [1][3]. Cloud Business Growth - The TPU has driven a 34% growth in Google's cloud business, second only to Azure, with cloud revenue reaching $15.2 billion in Q3 [8]. - Google's cloud market share increased from 18.6% to 19.3% year-over-year, showcasing its competitive edge against AWS and Oracle [8]. AI Ecosystem and User Engagement - Google is building a self-sufficient ecosystem from chip (TPU v7p) to model (Gemini 3.0) to applications (search and Waymo), which is expected to translate into financial returns [3]. - Gemini has reached 650 million monthly active users, and the AI Overviews service has served over 2 billion users, indicating strong user engagement [11]. Search and Advertising Strength - Google's search market share has rebounded to over 90%, supported by robust advertising cash flow that funds AI investments [10][13]. - The advertising business, empowered by Gemini, shows strong monetization potential, providing a stable cash flow for ongoing capital expenditures [13]. Technological Advancements - The TPU v7p chip, with an FP8 computing power of 4.5 PF, directly competes with Nvidia's B300 chip, showcasing Google's technological leadership [7]. - Google has initiated TPU deployment to third-party cloud service providers, opening new growth avenues [7]. Future Projections - Huatai Securities has raised Google's target price to $380, indicating over an 18% upside potential, corresponding to a 30x PE ratio for 2026 [4][15]. - Revenue forecasts for Google have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenue of approximately $405.2 billion in 2025 and net profit of $131.5 billion [14].