估值触底，逻辑重生：中国CXO的投资再认知

Core Viewpoint - The CXO industry in China is experiencing a structural recovery driven by new technologies and models, moving beyond short-term profit and order recovery to a new cycle of higher added value [6][31]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The CXO industry has undergone significant fluctuations over the past five years, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a phase of adjustment due to various external pressures [5][8]. Definition, History, and Business Model of CXO - CXO encompasses contract research organizations (CRO) and contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMO), providing essential services throughout the drug development lifecycle [9][10][11]. - The industry evolved through three main stages: initial outsourcing in the 1960s-80s, systematic development of R&D outsourcing since the 1990s, and the rise of integrated services and new technologies in the 2010s [12][13][14]. Business Model of CXO - The growth of the CXO market is driven by global pharmaceutical R&D investment and the increasing outsourcing penetration rate [15][16]. - Global pharmaceutical R&D investment has grown from approximately $130 billion in 2010 to over $250 billion in 2023, providing a solid foundation for the industry [16]. - The outsourcing penetration rate has increased from about 30% to nearly 50% over the past decade, driven by cost efficiency and risk management [17][18]. Cycle Review: 2017-2024 - The CXO industry in China experienced a "super cycle" from 2017 to 2021, driven by domestic demand, global technology cycles, and the COVID-19 pandemic [20][22][23]. - The subsequent downturn from late 2021 to early 2024 was marked by a decline in demand, tightening global liquidity, and the natural decline of COVID-related demand [24][25][26]. New Cycle: Structural Recovery or Full Reversal? - The current recovery is characterized by a structural shift driven by new technologies, moving away from homogeneous competition to a higher value cycle [31][32]. - The recovery signals are evident from upstream drug discovery to midstream animal testing, indicating a gradual improvement in demand [33][34]. Core Drivers: New Technology Platforms - The recovery is driven by the emergence of complex, high-value new technology platforms such as ADCs and TIDES, which enhance the dependency on CXO services [35][36]. Funding Dynamics - The funding landscape has shifted from reliance on external financing to a more diversified and stable model, with domestic companies achieving profitability and increased BD activities [37][38][40]. Global Competition and Geopolitical Challenges - Chinese CXO companies maintain a competitive edge through cost advantages, efficiency, and quality improvements, despite geopolitical uncertainties [42][43][46]. - The geopolitical risks, such as the proposed BIOSECURE Act, may impact market perceptions but are unlikely to significantly affect the core operations of leading CXO firms [48]. Investment Logic in the New Cycle - The investment focus has shifted from chasing overall industry growth to identifying companies with unique competitive advantages, such as leading technology platforms and integrated service capabilities [49][50][51].