国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-25 13:04Core Viewpoint - In October, Swiss watch exports to China increased by 12.6% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of double-digit growth. The export value of watches priced between 200-500 Swiss francs has seen a significant decline, while high-end price segments have been relatively less affected [1][2]. Export Data Summary - In October, the year-on-year changes in Swiss watch exports were as follows: global exports decreased by 4.4%, exports to China increased by 12.6%, exports to the US decreased by 46.8%, exports to Japan decreased by 5.6%, exports to Europe increased by 3.3%, exports to Hong Kong increased by 2.4%, and exports to Singapore increased by 5.6%. Month-on-month changes were -1.3%, -5.2%, +8.8%, +2.3%, +0.1%, -18.2%, and -2.7 percentage points respectively [2]. - Cumulatively from January to October, global exports decreased by 1.6%, exports to China decreased by 13.5%, exports to the US increased by 3.7%, exports to Japan decreased by 6.4%, exports to Europe decreased by 0.9%, exports to Hong Kong decreased by 7.4%, and exports to Singapore decreased by 0.8% [2]. - The exports to China in September and October showed significant growth of 17.8% and 12.6% respectively, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2]. Price Segment Analysis - The export values for Swiss watches in October by price segment were as follows: under 200 Swiss francs increased by 8.2%, 200-500 Swiss francs decreased by 0.7%, 500-3000 Swiss francs increased by 9.4%, and over 3000 Swiss francs decreased by 7.1%. Cumulatively from January to October, the export values were down by 2.7% for under 200 Swiss francs, down by 8.7% for 200-500 Swiss francs, up by 0.1% for 500-3000 Swiss francs, and up by 1.6% for over 3000 Swiss francs [3]. - The 200-500 Swiss francs segment experienced the most significant decline, while higher-end segments were less impacted [3]. Future Outlook - Short-term outlook indicates pressure on October export data, with Q4 overseas consumption needing further observation. Looking ahead to 2026, the recovery logic for the export manufacturing sector appears clearer, driven by three main factors: the implementation of US tariff policies, reduced tariff pressure shared with brands, and ongoing improvements in production line allocation and capacity [1]. - The North American consumer market remains supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with recent luxury brand earnings reports indicating that the North American market is leading in growth and accelerating compared to Q2. However, attention should be paid to the resilience of performance in Q4 against a high base and consumer reactions following price increases in Q3 [1].