国泰海通｜海外策略：降息暂缓与AI泡沫担忧下全球普跌

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a decline, with MSCI Global down by 2.1%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 2.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 3.0% [1] - The Japanese 10Y government bond yield saw a significant increase, while commodities like corn had notable price fluctuations [1] - The technology sector faced substantial declines amid heightened concerns over AI bubbles, with domestic materials and pharmaceuticals experiencing the largest drops [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in European and North American markets, while A-shares and Korean stocks saw a decrease in volume [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased and remained at historically low levels, while sentiment in the US was high but also declined [1] - Volatility increased across Hong Kong, European, Japanese, and US markets, with overall valuations in developed and emerging markets declining compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's materials sector saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, while US technology earnings expectations were maintained [2] - The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2077 to 2085, while the S&P 500's expectation remained at 272 [2] - European earnings expectations for the STOXX50 index remained unchanged at 333 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in China and the US showed signs of recovery, with the Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index rising due to factors like fluctuating Fed rate cut expectations and Nvidia's strong quarterly results [2] - Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index fell significantly, influenced by geopolitical risks and political instability [2] - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index showed marginal improvement, supported by positive expectations from upcoming important meetings [2] Capital Flows - The debate over Fed rate cuts intensified, with most Fed officials maintaining a hawkish stance despite some dovish comments [3] - As of November 21, the futures market implied an expectation of 0.63 rate cuts by the Fed within the year [3] - Global liquidity tightened, with significant capital inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, while Hong Kong saw substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [3]