“债券之王”冈拉克：美股市场深陷“狂热”，黄金是避风港

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is characterized by extreme speculation in the U.S. stock market, which is deemed unhealthy, with a strong emphasis on gold as a true asset class and a recommended allocation of around 15% in investment portfolios [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Assessment - The U.S. stock market is described as one of the most unhealthy markets in the history of the speaker's career, with classic valuation metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and market capitalization ratios reaching unsustainable levels [2][3]. - The current enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is compared to past market frenzies, such as the electric power boom, suggesting that while transformative technologies can change the world, they often lead to overpricing of future earnings [3]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is highlighted as a key asset in investment portfolios, with the speaker expressing a strong bullish outlook, stating it is now recognized as a legitimate asset class rather than just a refuge for survivalists or speculators [4][5]. - The performance of gold has been exceptional, being the best-performing asset this year and over the past 12 months, despite a recent consolidation phase [5]. Group 3: Portfolio Strategy - A significant reduction in exposure to traditional financial assets is recommended, with a shift away from the conventional 60/40 stock-bond allocation. The speaker suggests that stocks should not exceed 40% of the portfolio, and fixed income should only account for about 25% [6]. - The remaining portion of the portfolio should be allocated to tangible assets like gold and cash, reflecting a cautious approach given the high market valuations and potential economic risks [6].