我不相信行情在4000点就结束了

Core Viewpoint - The current market adjustment is likely due to short-term negative policy factors, and it is not seen as a market top. Investors are encouraged to remain patient and gradually increase their positions as the market stabilizes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The market is experiencing a 5% adjustment, which is unusual as it reflects a high level of pessimism among investors. Typically, at market tops, there is more irrational exuberance [2]. - Current market valuations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are not considered cheap but also not overly expensive, indicating a balanced market condition [2]. - The main market players are still active, suggesting that the current adjustment is merely a daily fluctuation rather than a significant downturn [2]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The combination of significantly reduced risk-free interest rates, a collapsing real estate market, and capital controls creates a unique environment that may favor the stock market as a new asset class [3]. - Economic growth is viewed as a continuous upward trend, with the stock market reflecting this growth over time. Long-term investors are encouraged to hold onto their stocks as a means of benefiting from future economic improvements [4]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Using wave theory, the market is expected to experience a series of movements: an initial rise to 3674, followed by a correction to around 3040, and then a significant rise to over 4000 points, with a potential peak around 4330 by mid-2026 [6]. - The analysis suggests that after reaching 4000 points, a bear market may ensue, characterized by a prolonged decline that will not drop below 3000 points, potentially lasting until 2029 [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors uncertain about the market's direction, a convertible bond strategy is proposed, combining government bond repurchase with selected convertible bonds to mitigate risks while maintaining exposure to market movements [11].