市场对美联储12月降息预期大幅升至80%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that several Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly and Christopher Waller, support a rate cut in December, citing risks in the labor market that outweigh inflation concerns [1][7][8] - Mary Daly warns of a "non-linear" deterioration in the labor market, indicating that managing sudden changes in employment is more challenging than addressing inflation [7] - The market has reacted swiftly, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising from approximately 40% to 80% following the dovish statements from Fed officials [2][10] Group 2 - The complexity of the upcoming decision is highlighted by the government shutdown, which has delayed key employment data releases for October and November, leaving officials to make judgments with incomplete information [4] - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials, like Susan Collins, advocating for a more cautious approach due to resilient demand potentially exerting upward pressure on inflation [9] - The financial markets have adjusted their expectations significantly, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping sharply and the ten-year yield reaching its lowest point this month [2][12]